Name: Europe's population in 2100, 2025–2100
Creator: Civitascope
Published: 2026-11-04T11:24:17+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The ranking

Between 2025 and 2100, the projected change would be highest in Luxembourg, whose population would grow by 36.43%, and lowest in Latvia, whose population would fall by 33.94%.

Projected change in population, %

2025–2100

−40−2002040%

EU, −11.73 %

Rank 1: Luxembourg, +36.43 %

Rank 2: Malta, +26.03 %

Rank 3: Ireland, +14.59 %

Rank 4: Sweden, +10.02 %

Rank 5: Cyprus, +6.14 %

Rank 6: Netherlands, +4.34 %

Rank 7: Belgium, +3.52 %

Rank 8: Spain, +1.27 %

Rank 9: Denmark, +0.66 %

Rank 10: France, −2.51 %

Rank 11: Austria, −3.80 %

Rank 12: Germany, −10.58 %

Rank 13: Slovenia, −10.60 %

Rank 14: Finland, −10.65 %

Rank 15: Czechia, −11.54 %

Rank 16: Estonia, −19.11 %

Rank 17: Portugal, −19.25 %

Rank 18: Hungary, −22.51 %

Rank 19: Italy, −24.04 %

Rank 20: Romania, −24.34 %

Rank 21: Slovakia, −26.66 %

Rank 22: Croatia, −26.98 %

Rank 23: Bulgaria, −27.96 %

Rank 24: Greece, −30.12 %

Rank 25: Poland, −31.57 %

Rank 26: Lithuania, −33.36 %

Rank 27: Latvia, −33.94 %

A value below zero means the population would fall, a value above zero that it would grow.How to read: the bars start at zero. A value above zero runs to the right in green, one below zero to the left in brown. Every country with a value is shown, ranked from highest to lowest, and the EU in the first row.Source: Eurostat, Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection (proj_25np).Chart: Civitascope (civitascope.eu) · CC BY 4.0 · Download image · Download data ·

Baseline and zero net migration

With zero net migration, the projected change would be highest in Ireland, whose population would fall by 19.4%, and lowest in Malta, whose population would fall by 56.0%.

Projected change in population: zero net migration and baseline, %

2025–2100

Zero net migrationBaselineBaseline − zero net migrationDifference

−60−40−2002040%

Rank 1: Luxembourg, Zero net migration: −37.2 %, Baseline: 36.43 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +73.6

Rank 2: Malta, Zero net migration: −56.0 %, Baseline: 26.03 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +82.0

Rank 3: Ireland, Zero net migration: −19.4 %, Baseline: 14.59 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +34.0

Rank 4: Sweden, Zero net migration: −28.0 %, Baseline: 10.02 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +38.0

Rank 5: Cyprus, Zero net migration: −38.8 %, Baseline: 6.14 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +44.9

Rank 6: Netherlands, Zero net migration: −32.2 %, Baseline: 4.34 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +36.5

Rank 7: Belgium, Zero net migration: −30.3 %, Baseline: 3.52 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +33.8

Rank 8: Spain, Zero net migration: −51.7 %, Baseline: 1.27 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +53.0

Rank 9: Denmark, Zero net migration: −26.7 %, Baseline: 0.66 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +27.4

Rank 10: France, Zero net migration: −20.1 %, Baseline: −2.51 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +17.6

Rank 11: Austria, Zero net migration: −42.8 %, Baseline: −3.80 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +39.0

Rank 12: Germany, Zero net migration: −43.0 %, Baseline: −10.58 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +32.4

Rank 13: Slovenia, Zero net migration: −38.9 %, Baseline: −10.60 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +28.3

Rank 14: Finland, Zero net migration: −42.3 %, Baseline: −10.65 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +31.6

Rank 15: Czechia, Zero net migration: −35.8 %, Baseline: −11.54 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +24.3

Rank 16: Estonia, Zero net migration: −42.7 %, Baseline: −19.11 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +23.6

Rank 17: Portugal, Zero net migration: −44.7 %, Baseline: −19.25 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +25.5

Rank 18: Hungary, Zero net migration: −41.7 %, Baseline: −22.51 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +19.2

Rank 19: Italy, Zero net migration: −54.5 %, Baseline: −24.04 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +30.5

Rank 20: Romania, Zero net migration: −35.9 %, Baseline: −24.34 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +11.6

Rank 21: Slovakia, Zero net migration: −38.2 %, Baseline: −26.66 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +11.5

Rank 22: Croatia, Zero net migration: −41.4 %, Baseline: −26.98 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +14.4

Rank 23: Bulgaria, Zero net migration: −37.4 %, Baseline: −27.96 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +9.4

Rank 24: Greece, Zero net migration: −50.5 %, Baseline: −30.12 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +20.4

Rank 25: Poland, Zero net migration: −49.3 %, Baseline: −31.57 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +17.7

Rank 26: Lithuania, Zero net migration: −53.9 %, Baseline: −33.36 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +20.5

Rank 27: Latvia, Zero net migration: −47.0 %, Baseline: −33.94 %, Baseline − zero net migration: +13.1

A value below zero means the population would fall, a value above zero that it would grow.How to read: the filled dot is baseline, the outlined dot zero net migration, each with its value beside it. The column on the right is their difference, baseline − zero net migration. Countries are ranked by baseline.Source: Eurostat, Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection (proj_25np).Chart: Civitascope (civitascope.eu) · CC BY 4.0 · Download image · Download data ·

	Baseline	Zero net migration
Lowest	−33.94%Latvia	−56.0%Malta
Highest	+36.43%Luxembourg	−19.4%Ireland
Highest − lowest	70.37 pp	36.6 pp

Baseline

Lowest: −33.94% (Latvia)Highest: +36.43% (Luxembourg)Highest − lowest: 70.37 pp

Zero net migration

Lowest: −56.0% (Malta)Highest: −19.4% (Ireland)Highest − lowest: 36.6 pp

Besides the baseline, Eurostat also computed alternative scenarios, called sensitivity tests. They show how sensitive the projected population is to the assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. Each one gives how the EU's population would change between 2025 and 2100.

Assumption	2025–2100
Baseline	−11.73%
Higher migrationImmigration from outside the EU is 33% higher every year from 2026 to 2100 than in the baseline.	+1.4%
Delayed convergenceNet migration converges more slowly towards common EU levels than in the baseline, and immigration rises more when the working-age population shrinks (the replacement migration rate goes from 10% to 25%).	−7.5%
Lower mortalityLife expectancy at birth is two years higher by 2080 than in the baseline.	−9.4%
Lower fertilityFertility rates are 20% lower from 2034 than in the baseline.	−23.0%
Lower migrationImmigration from outside the EU is 33% lower every year from 2026 to 2100 than in the baseline.	−24.7%
Zero net migrationNet migration is zero every year from 2026 to 2100.	−40.5%

The assumptions are from Eurostat's methodology of the EUROPOP2025 population projections (proj_25n_esms).

Young and old

Population of the EU by sex and five-year age group, 1 January

EU · 2025 · 2100 · million

100+: men 0.0 million (2025), 1.0 million (2100), women 0.1 million (2025), 2.0 million (2100).95–99: men 0.2 million (2025), 2.7 million (2100), women 0.8 million (2025), 4.0 million (2100).90–94: men 1.2 million (2025), 6.0 million (2100), women 2.7 million (2025), 7.6 million (2100).85–89: men 3.3 million (2025), 8.9 million (2100), women 5.8 million (2025), 10.3 million (2100).80–84: men 5.6 million (2025), 10.7 million (2100), women 8.1 million (2025), 11.7 million (2100).75–79: men 8.6 million (2025), 11.1 million (2100), women 10.9 million (2025), 11.6 million (2100).70–74: men 10.9 million (2025), 11.2 million (2100), women 13.1 million (2025), 11.3 million (2100).65–69: men 13.0 million (2025), 11.9 million (2100), women 14.6 million (2025), 11.8 million (2100).60–64: men 14.8 million (2025), 12.4 million (2100), women 15.7 million (2025), 12.0 million (2100).55–59: men 15.9 million (2025), 12.5 million (2100), women 16.3 million (2025), 12.0 million (2100).50–54: men 15.8 million (2025), 12.3 million (2100), women 16.0 million (2025), 11.7 million (2100).45–49: men 15.7 million (2025), 11.8 million (2100), women 15.7 million (2025), 11.2 million (2100).40–44: men 15.3 million (2025), 11.3 million (2100), women 15.2 million (2025), 10.7 million (2100).35–39: men 14.9 million (2025), 10.9 million (2100), women 14.6 million (2025), 10.3 million (2100).30–34: men 14.1 million (2025), 10.6 million (2100), women 13.6 million (2025), 10.0 million (2100).25–29: men 13.1 million (2025), 10.2 million (2100), women 12.3 million (2025), 9.6 million (2100).20–24: men 12.5 million (2025), 9.7 million (2100), women 11.7 million (2025), 9.1 million (2100).15–19: men 12.6 million (2025), 9.2 million (2100), women 11.8 million (2025), 8.7 million (2100).10–14: men 12.1 million (2025), 8.7 million (2100), women 11.4 million (2025), 8.2 million (2100).5–9: men 11.4 million (2025), 8.3 million (2100), women 10.8 million (2025), 7.9 million (2100).0–4: men 9.9 million (2025), 8.0 million (2100), women 9.4 million (2025), 7.6 million (2100).

How to read: men on the left, women on the right, the youngest at the bottom. The bars are 2025, the line 2100. Where the line runs outside a bar, the age group is larger in 2100, and where it runs inside, smaller.Source: Eurostat, Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection (proj_25np).Chart: Civitascope (civitascope.eu) · CC BY 4.0 · Download image · Download data ·

About the data

Projected population on 1 January of each year from 2025 to 2100 (EUROPOP2025). It is a what-if scenario built from assumptions on fertility, mortality and net migration, not a forecast.

Eurostat: “Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration.” (source)

Eurostat's EUROPOP2025 projections at national level for the 27 EU countries, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, with assumptions based on data downloaded on 8 April 2026.

How to read these numbers

How it is measured

A projection is a what-if scenario. It shows what would happen if the assumed fertility, mortality and migration came true, not what will happen.

Over such a long horizon the result is only one of a range of possible developments. Fertility and international migration in particular can change a lot.

The sensitivity tests are not forecasts either.

Sources and data

Eurostat, Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection (proj_25np). Data updated 11 June 2026, retrieved 4 November 2026. Licence: CC BY 4.0.

Eurostat metadata · Eurostat methodology

The exact Eurostat API query

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/proj_25np?format=JSON&lang=en&age=TOTAL&freq=A&geo=AT&geo=BE&geo=BG&geo=CY&geo=CZ&geo=DE&geo=DK&geo=EE&geo=EL&geo=ES&geo=EU27_2020&geo=FI&geo=FR&geo=HR&geo=HU&geo=IE&geo=IT&geo=LT&geo=LU&geo=LV&geo=MT&geo=NL&geo=PL&geo=PT&geo=RO&geo=SE&geo=SI&geo=SK&projection=BSL&sex=T&unit=PER

How every number in this story was computed

Europe's population in 2100